Value Bets in Tennis
It isn’t very difficult to build and implement an efficient betting system and a good tennis betting strategy. It’s actually a pretty straightforward affair. You need to make use of the same two basic betting strategies that are applicable to all other sports:
– Always seeking a certain amount of value in the bet
– Any time you wish to get behind an underdog, making sure you have a solid theory and reason to do so
Seeking value in tennis bets implies looking for the best possible odds, keeping in mind the probability factor.
For instance, let’s say that Novak Djokovic is up against Rafael Nadal in his next tennis match. Now both these players have faced each other a good number of times, and enjoy a very healthy rivalry in the modern era of tennis. Djokovic has actually beaten Rafa quite a few times in a very emphatic manner. Although bookies may consider Djokovic a huge favourite going into the match, the best way you can derive the best value from the bet is by going with the straight sets option.
In this scenario, the bookmaker may offer odds of 1.32 on the Djokovic victory. Hence, if you bet £ 100 on Djokovic victory, you’d get £ 132 in return, essentially a £ 32 profit.
But if you bet on a straight sets victory for Djokovic, the odds may go up to a more profitable 1.92 (converting the probability to 55.4%). In this case, your profit will increase to £ 92 if Djokovic indeed beats Rafa in three straight sets.
We can make the bet even more interesting by handicapping Djokovic to not lose any more than seven games in the match, in other words, a -7.5 handicap. The probability of Djokovic winning in such an emphatic manner may be only around 44%, but if the research reveals that he’s dropped no more than six games in last five of his seven matches with Rafa, you’d be better off adding that sort of handicap to your bet.
The -7.5 handicap may change the odds to an even more attractive 2.70, implying that every £ 100 bet would return a profit of £ 170, if Djokovic does beat Rafa, meeting all the above conditions.
So, what actually is meant by a value bet?
There is no other way of putting this, but your long-term success at tennis betting depends heavily on whether you can find value in different tennis betting odds or not.
But, how do you go about calculating such value?
It’s fairly simple!
The formula is:
Value of the bet = (Decimal odds x Assessed Probability) – 1
Let’s say we’re backing Jo-Wilfried Tsonga to win a certain Grand Slam match, and the odds of him winning are 2.40. We’ve done our due diligence and have figured that the probability of him winning the match is 48%. So, let’s now figure out if there is any value in this bet by using the formula above:
Value of the bet = (2.40 x 0.48) – 1
Value of the bet = 1.152 – 1
Value of the bet = 0.152
In general, you have a certain value in the bet whenever the final figure is greater than zero. Hence, with the 2.40 odds above, and the probability of 48%, we have a value of 15.2% in this bet. It’s an excellent value bet!
The method of beating the odds set by the bookmaker is by more accurately assessing the probability of an outcome, compared to the bookmaker. The more consistently you do it, the more you’ll be able to profit from tennis betting in the long term.